CL New York Crude Oil – Oil prices continued to trade in a low range, with focus on Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations

Oil prices rose on Thursday as market participants weighed the possibility of an agreement to end the war in Ukraine. Trading volume was thin due to the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States. U.S. crude futures rose 45 cents, or 0.8%, to $59.10 a barrel. Ukrainian President Zelensky said on Thursday that delegations from Ukraine and the United States would meet this week to develop a plan to be discussed at the Geneva talks, aiming to achieve peace and provide security guarantees for Kyiv. Russian President Putin said that the draft peace plan discussed by the United States and Ukraine could form the basis for an agreement to end the war. Putin also stated that fighting would stop once Ukrainian troops withdraw from key areas, but if no agreement is reached, Russia will achieve its objectives by force.

Two representatives of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and a source familiar with the OPEC+ negotiations told Reuters that the organization and its allies are likely to maintain current oil production levels at their meeting on Sunday and agree on a mechanism for assessing member countries' maximum production capacity.

New York crude oil futures have maintained a narrow downward trend in the near term, repeatedly encountering resistance below the 50-day moving average. This week, they are hovering around the $58 level, indicating a potential for further downside in the short term. Short-term support levels are seen at $57.10 and the October low of $56.35, with the next level anticipated at the May 5th low of $55.30. The resistance levels will be seen at $59.10 and the $60, with the key level remaining the 50-day moving average currently at $60.45; the strongest resistance is estimated at $62.60.

Forecasted range:
Resistance: 59.10 - 60.00 – 60.45* – 62.60
Support: 57.10 – 56.35 - 55.00/30

This Week's Key News:

EIA: US refinery utilization rate rose 2.3 percentage points in one week

EIA: US crude oil imports increased by 1.046 million barrels per day in one week

EIA: US crude oil inventories increased by 2.774 million barrels in one week

EIA: US gasoline inventories increased by 2.513 million barrels in one week

EIA: US distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.147 million barrels in one week

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