CL New York Oil Futures - Oil Prices Slightly Retreat, IEA Expects Oil Market to Remain Well Supplied Next Year

Oil prices edged lower on Thursday, pressured by forecasts of ample supply in the oil market but supported by expectations of a Fed rate cut in the U.S. U.S. crude oil futures fell by 27 cents, or 0.38%, to $70.02. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated on Thursday that even with an extension of production cuts by OPEC+ and demand forecasts slightly higher than expected, the global oil market is expected to remain well supplied in 2025. In its monthly oil market report, the IEA raised its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2025 from 990,000 barrels per day last month to 1.1 million barrels per day, "largely driven by Asian countries, as China's recent stimulus measures take effect." Additionally, inflation in the U.S. ticked up slightly in November, in line with economists' expectations. Investors widely anticipate another rate cut by the Fed, boosting optimism about economic growth and energy demand.

According to technical charts, resistance levels are seen at the 50-day moving average of $70.30 and $71.50, with the high on November 7th at $72.88 acting as a neckline level. A break above this area would confirm a triple bottom formation seen in recent months. Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% and 61.8% point to $72.55 and $73.95, respectively. The 250-day moving average at $75.90 serves as another key reference point. Support levels are estimated at $69 and $68.20, with the next level expected at $67 and the November low of $66.61, with stronger support at $65.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 71.50 - 72.88 - 73.95 - 75.90
Support: 69.00 - 68.20 - 67.00 - 66.61 - 65.00

Highlights of the week:
EIA: U.S. weekly distillate stockpiles up by 3.235 million barrels
EIA: U.S. weekly gasoline inventories increase by 5.086 million barrels
EIA: U.S. weekly crude oil inventories decrease by 1.425 million barrels
EIA: U.S. weekly refinery utilization rate drops by 0.9 percentage points

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