CL New York Crude Oil – Geopolitical Conflicts Continue to Push Oil Prices to Over Five-Week High

New York crude oil futures rose as much as 1.7% to $85.75, hitting a high since June 12. The U.S. military stated it had launched airstrikes against Iranian military targets for the 11th consecutive night, and Kuwait also reported being attacked by Iranian drones, fueling market concerns about further disruptions to energy supplies in the Middle East.

The U.S. military launched strikes against targets in southern and western Iran late Tuesday night (US time), while Iran launched attacks on US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan. The Kuwaiti military stated that its air defense system successfully intercepted an Iranian drone on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, who had previously threatened to attack ships carrying Saudi oil in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and announced a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, opened a new front in the escalating Middle East conflict, further exacerbating market concerns about the stability of global energy supplies. US Defense Secretary Hergsays stated that the US war in Iran has cost $37.5 billion so far, nearly $8 billion more than the previous public estimate.

As seen on the technical charts, the RSI is rebounding, with the 5-day moving average crossing above the 10-day moving average. The price had previously broken above the 25-day moving average, suggesting that oil prices are likely to maintain upward momentum in the short term. The 250-day moving average, currently at $72.70, has now become a key support level. Nearer support levels are estimated at the 50-day moving average at $83.20 and $81, followed by $79.50 and $77.80. Resistance is seen at the descending trendline resistance at $86.80; a break above this level would be a significant technical breakout, extending to the 100-day moving average at $89.70 and then $91.60, before reaching $95.50.

Forecasted Trading Range:
Resistance: $86.80** – $89.70 – $91.60 – $95.50
Support: $83.20 - $81.00 – $79.50 – $77.80 - $72.70

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