AUD Australian Dollar - Reserve Bank of Australia Statement Slightly Dovish, Australian Dollar Movement Constrained

Australia's unemployment rate for November dropped to an eight-month low, leading the market to reduce bets on the Reserve Bank of Australia implementing loose policies in February. Just a few days ago, the Reserve Bank of Australia unexpectedly turned dovish, opening the door to interest rate cuts. Data shows that the unemployment rate for November decreased from 4.1% in October to 3.9%, marking the lowest since March, while analysts had initially expected the unemployment rate to rise to 4.2%.

The Australian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar has been continuously declining since hitting a bottom, forming a relatively neat downward trend line with a significant resistance at 0.6480. If the exchange rate can rise above this level in the future, it will be seen as an important signal of reversing the weakness. Additionally, based on current technical charts, both the RSI and stochastic indicators have rebounded from oversold territory, indicating that the downward momentum of the Australian Dollar against the U.S. Dollar is likely to slow down in the short term. Calculated using the golden ratio, rebound levels of 23.6% and 38.2% are at 0.6510 and 0.6590, extending to 50% and 61.8% levels at 0.6655 and 0.6725 respectively. Support levels are seen at 0.6360 and the low of August at 0.6346, with further attention to 0.62 and 0.60 levels.

Forecast range:
Resistance: 0.6480* - 0.6590 - 0.6655 - 0.6725
Support: 0.6360 - 0.6346 - 0.6200 - 0.6000

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