EUR – Dollar slips as latest tariff threat reignites market concerns

The dollar fell again on Friday as U.S. President Trump again threatened to escalate the trade war, suggesting a 50% tariff on the European Union from June 1, which once again raised concerns about the impact on global trade and the economy, prompting investors to sell the dollar. Trump posted on social media that the European Union was "very difficult to deal with" and that discussions with them were going nowhere. In another post, he threatened to impose a 25% tariff on Apple, Samsung and other smartphone makers that don't manufacture in the United States. U.S. Treasury Secretary Jeff Bessant noted that Trump's tariff remarks were a response to the pace of EU tariff talks, and said the president believed that the quality of the EU's trade proposals to the United States was not high enough. The dollar index hit a three-week low below 99.10 on Friday, down 1.9% for the week, the biggest weekly drop since early April, with U.S. stocks following the dollar's decline; the euro rose to above 1.1370 against the dollar, the highest level in two weeks.

Regarding the trend of EUR/USD, the technical chart shows that the RSI and stochastic index are rising again, and the MACD indicator is breaking above the signal line, indicating that the euro will continue to rise in the medium and short term. Looking up, the first targets will be 1.1380 and 1.1450, and the next level will be 1.15 and the April 21 high of 1.1573; the mid-line key point is 1.17. As for the nearest support, we first look at 1.1270 and 1.12. The next level refers to the 50-day moving average of 1.1140 and even the 1.10 mark.

Estimated range:
Resistance 1.1380 – 1.1450 – 1.1500 – 1.1573 – 1.1700
Support 1.1270 - 1.1200 – 1.1140 – 1.1000

Focus:
Wednesday: German unemployment rate in May (15:55)

Friday: German import prices and retail sales for April (14:00)
German May CPI‧HICP (20:00)

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