XAU – Gold Continues to Fluctuate, Watching the US-Iran Negotiations

The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has seen subtle changes. Israel and Lebanon reached a ten-day ceasefire agreement, with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu stating that this move aims to push both sides towards a historic peace agreement. Meanwhile, the US and Iran are reportedly set to resume a new round of negotiations on Monday, leading to increased market optimism regarding the prospect of a long-term ceasefire. If the ceasefire continues and expands, lower energy prices and easing inflationary pressures will create more room for the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Currently, interest rate futures reflect traders' estimates of a 32% probability of a US rate cut this year, which provides potential support for non-interest-bearing assets such as gold. However, the issue of passage through the Strait of Hormuz has once again dampened market sentiment. Tehran briefly reopened the strait last Friday, initially boosting risk appetite, weakening the dollar, and causing gold and silver prices to rise simultaneously. However, on Saturday, authorities announced a renewed closure, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps blaming the decision on the continued US blockade. In fact, the strait has been effectively blocked by Tehran for nearly two months, continuing to put pressure on the global energy supply chain. US President Trump responded strongly, stating that Iran cannot blackmail the US over the waterway issue. The coexistence of energy supply risks and sticky inflation adds further uncertainty to the monetary policy paths of major central banks, resulting in a cautious wait-and-see attitude in the gold market amidst a mix of bullish and bearish factors.

old opened significantly lower at $4687.2 at the beginning of last week, briefly dipping to $4644.5 before finding support and steadily recovering. The average daily fluctuation during the week was about $100, although the volatility narrowed significantly to $65 on Thursday evening, reflecting the market's anticipation of further clarification on the situation in the Iranian Strait. With news triggering safe-haven buying on Friday, gold prices surged, reaching a high of $4889.3 before closing at $4830.3.

Technically, gold prices are currently fluctuating around the $4800 level. The weekly chart shows the nine-week moving average at $4869, and since last week's close fell below this level, a breakout has not yet been confirmed. Gold prices are currently fluctuating between the 9-week moving average and the 25-week moving average at $4,595. On the daily chart, the 50-day moving average at $4,897 forms a significant immediate resistance level. Without a firm hold above this level, a further pullback is possible, potentially testing the support zone around the 100-day moving average at $4,713 and then $4,581. Conversely, a successful breakout and hold above this level would target $4,974 and $5,067, before potentially challenging the early March high of $5,419.

Technically, gold prices are forming a triangle pattern, with the upper and lower boundaries at $4,888 and $4,788 respectively. The market currently expects gold prices to remain within a range, without a significant one-sided upward or downward move. Short-term trading strategies are preferable. Short-term support is seen at $4,774, with further support at $4,684 and $4,634; immediate resistance is at $4,858. The estimated trading range for the early part of this week is between $4708 and $4878.

This week's key takeaway: Capture market trends amidst erratic pronouncements and maximize profits during market volatility.

Geopolitical news is constantly evolving; traders should be flexible and closely monitor the immediate impact of policy shifts and unexpected events on asset prices.

London Gold's early forcasted trading range for April 20th to 24th:
Resistance: 4878 – 4954 – 5001 – 5044 – 5169
Support: 4799 – 4754 – 4708 – 4631 – 4554

London Gold on April 20th:
Early forecast range: 4801 – 486

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
April 13 – 1,047.19 tons
April 14 – 1,049.48 tons
April 15 – 1,051.76 tons
April 16 – 1,052.91 tons
April 17 – 1,060.62 tons

17/4 AM London Gold Fix: $4795.85 
17/4 PM London Gold Fix: $4870.5 

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