XAU – Trade negotiations begin, gold contention awaits change

Gold fell and then rebounded on Monday. The strengthening of the dollar continued to put pressure on gold, but the uncertainty of the global trade outlook may limit the room for gold to take back. The low price of gold was around $3296, but it has since recovered step by step and returned to above $3330. U.S. President Trump signed an executive order on Tuesday morning Hong Kong time to extend the effective date of "reciprocal" tariffs to August 1. The previous effective date was July 9.

Trump's tariff policy has exacerbated inflation concerns and further complicated the Fed's path to rate cuts. The minutes of the Fed's June meeting, scheduled to be released on Wednesday, will provide more clues to the policy outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders bet that the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in July is about 95%, while the probability of a rate cut in September is close to 60%.

Technical charts show that the RSI and stochastic index are currently sideways in the neutral area, and it is expected that gold prices will continue to maintain stability in the short term. The resistance level will still focus on the 25-day moving average of $3348. This area has not been broken in the previous two trading days. The subsequent resistance is estimated at $3358 and $3366, and then $3373 and $3385. The next level is directly at the $3400. The supporting level looks back at #3328 and $3319, and the largest support is expected to be $3312 and $3296.

London Gold July 8

Early forecast range: 3328 – 3342

Resistance 3358 – 3366 – 3373 – 3385

Support 3319 – 3312 – 3296 – 3281

SPDR Gold Trust gold holdings:
June 30 – 952.53 tons
July 1 – 948.23 tons
July 2 – 947.66 tons
July 3 – 947.66 tons
July 4 – 947.66 tons
July 7 – 947.66 tons

8/7 AM London Gold Fix: $3306
8/7 PM London Gold Fix: $3315.35 

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