XAU – Focus on the Fed's interest rate cut expectations this week, gold continues to rise

The U.S. dollar remained under pressure last week. Following Friday's weak August non-farm payroll report, the US revised down its employment figures for the year ending March by 910,000 jobs, and the number of initial jobless claims hit a nearly four-year high. Although Thursday's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by a seven-month high, it offered no indication of the Fed's interest rate direction. Federal funds futures are pricing in a 25 basis point rate cut on September 17th. The U.S. dollar came under pressure last Friday, posting its second weekly decline. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said last week that the US economy is beginning to show some signs of strain, with slowing domestic demand, weakening job growth, and tariffs posing an upside risk to inflation. Furthermore, the Fed's personnel arrangements remain a focus of attention. Trump said his list of candidates to succeed Fed Chairman Powell includes his aide Hassett, former Fed Governor Walsh, and current Fed Governor Waller. Authorities quickly appealed a federal judge's ruling blocking Trump's dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Tim Cook. The US Senate plans to hold a full vote on the nomination of White House senior economic adviser Milan to the Federal Reserve Board this Monday, but Milan may not be able to attend the September Fed meeting.

This week will see interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Bank of Canada, and Bank of Japan, but the focus remains on whether the Fed will cut rates and by how much.

gold prices rose from $3,579 at the start of last week to a high of $3,673.9 on Tuesday, setting another all-time high. However, they subsequently retreated to $3,613 on Thursday, closing at $3,642 over the weekend. Gold prices broke through $3,436 on August 29th, reaching a high of $3,673, an increase of nearly $238, or 6.92%. Based on volatility, the initial target is $3,673. Since September has been characterized by a small pullback followed by a large rally, it's important to keep an eye on the 9-day moving average, currently at 3,600. A significant correction in gold prices would be acceptable if it were to fall below this level. Intraday support is at $3632, with next-level support at $3535 and $3492. The key support is the 25-day moving average at $3452. From Tuesday to Friday of last week, gold prices again experienced a small sideways consolidation. This week's intraday resistance is $3646. If it successfully breaks through $3689, gold could further challenge $3729, $3746, and $3785. It's estimated that this rally will likely reach $3746, but be aware that given gold's recent strong upward momentum, the risk of a top is relatively high. Strategically, as with last week, hold on to existing stocks and follow the trend. Watch for news on the interest rate meeting midweek; gold prices may experience a correction. If it falls below $3632 and $3601, position-settled positions can be closed. If a major correction occurs, wait for an opportunity to buy! This week's estimated range is $3635 to $3689, with the support and resistance at $3729 and $3595, respectively.

London Gold Forecast Range from September 15th to 19th:
Resistance: 3662 – 3689 – 3709 – 3729/3776
Support: 3635 – 3615 – 3595 – 3568/3540

London Gold, September 15th:
Early Trading Range Forecast: 3636 – 3649
Resistance: 3655 – 3669 – 3682
Support: 3629 – 3618 – 3603

SPDR Gold Trust Gold Holdings:
September 1st – 977.68 tons
September 2nd – 990.56 tons
September 3rd – 984.26 tons
September 4th – 981.97 tons
September 5th – 981.97 tons
September 8th – 979.68 tons
September 9th – 979.68 tons
September 10th – 979.96 tons
September 11th – 977.95 tons
September 12th – 974.8 tons

12/9 AM London Gold Fix: $3645.35 
12/9 PM London Gold Fix: $3651.1 

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